This is what the Bills have been waiting and working for.
The Chiefs coming to Highmark Stadium for a playoff game.
Patrick Mahomes has never played a road game in the postseason.
He’s now doing so in arguably the most challenging environment you’ll find for a visiting team in all the NFL.
This all throws out all the excuses.
I wouldn’t go as far as call this now-or-never, but if the Bills can’t finally get over the hump with these circumstances, I think there’s more questions about this team’s Super Bowl window than ever before.
It’s the biggest game of Sean McDermott’s career.
It’s the biggest game of Josh Allen’s career.
It’s the biggest game this franchise has had in 30 years.
There’s so much familiarity between these two teams.
Let’s dive into what’s on tap this time around.
Wounded Defense
Injuries to the Bills defense has been the story all season.
So too has been this team’s ability to overcome them.
That ask will continue Sunday night with Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp, and Baylon Spector already ruled out of the game.
The statuses for Terrel Bernard, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson remain up in the air.
The good news is Tyrel Dodson will be back after missing the wild card game.
I asked both McDermott and assistant head coach/defensive line coach Eric Washington this week how much the gameplan on D has had to be altered throughout the season as new guys are cycled in due to injury.
Both said very little at all.
So regardless of who is in and who is out, the coaching staff maintaining they’ll attack Mahomes and the Chiefs O the same.
We understand that’s no easy task, even if KC isn’t as prolific as they’ve been in the past.
Mahomes has thrown for 2+ TD passes in five of the six games he’s faced the Bills in his career.
His two best performances were in the two playoff meetings, completing over 75% of his throws for 703 yards and three TDs in each game with no INTs.
Let’s see how the former MVP cooks in a stadium he’s played only once – a 21/26 for 225 yard performance back in 2019, with 2 TDs and 0 INTs.
Rice Cookin
So much has been made this season of what the Chiefs don’t have on offense.
What’s become clear during the back-half is that they do have a young budding standout receiver.
Rashee Rice finished his rookie season with 79 receptions for 937 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets.
His role and impact on KC’s offense grew as the year went on, not seeing more than seven targets until the 11th game of the season.
Since late November, Rice has seen 9 or more targets in all but one game.
Over those seven games, including last weekend’s playoff win over Miami, Rice has 51 receptions for 648 yards and four TDs.
That includes 7 grabs for 72 yards and a TD against the Bills in early December.
Rice clearly is becoming someone Mahomes trusts and is developing chemistry with.
While the numbers don’t pop like normal, I’d still put Travis Kelce as the number one player to focus on in the Chiefs offense, but Rice is next in line – with the potential to be the most explosive and dangerous weapon for KC.
Pacheco Back
While so much remains the same each time these two teams meet, one difference this go around will be Isiah Pacheco.
The Chiefs running back missed the December game in KC, but will be on the field this Sunday night.
Pacheco is a great compliment for this offense, running incredibly hard – which brings extra energy and juice to that unit.
He averaged 66.8 yards on 14.6 carries per game during his 2nd season in the league, up from 48.8 yards on 10 carries per game as a rookie.
Only three times has Pacheco has eclipsed 100+ rushing yards, two have come in the last four games.
The Bills held KC to just 82 rushing yards in the December game, led by Clyde Edwards-Helaire going for 39 on 11 carries.
While the Chiefs train will certainly still be led by Mahomes and the air attack, I’d expect Pacheco to bring a boost we didn’t see over a month ago.
Allen Stays Clean
Allen has done so many great things this season.
One area he’s struggled with is turning the football over.
Monday against the Steelers was just the 4th game all season Allen didn’t have a turnover.
The Bills are 4-0 in those games, winning by an average score of 37-14.
Allen’s completed 74.8% of his passes in those four games, tossing 11 TDs to no interceptions.
We certainly know the holes Allen and others have put the Bills in by turning the ball over this season, so I’d put staying clean again, or at least winning the turnover battle, as arguably the most critical component in the outcome of Sunday night’s game.
Kansas City finished the regular season tied for 27th in the NFL with just 17 takeaways (8 INT and 9 FUM), so it’s not their strength.
On the Line
BUF (-2.5)
O/U: 45.5
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 228.5
Patrick Mahomes O/U Passing Yards: 253.5
James Cook O/U Rushing Yards: 61.5
Isaiah Pacheco O/U Rushing Yards: 61.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 62.5
Travis Kelce O/U Receiving Yards: 61.5
Rashee Rice O/U Receiving Yards: 68.5
Injury Report
KANSAS CITY
OUT: OL Wanya Morris (concussion), DT Derrick Nnadi (tricep), WR Skyy Moore (knee – IR)
QUESTIONABLE: WR Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle), WR Justyn Ross (hamstring)
BUFFALO
OUT: WR Gabe Davis (knee), LB Baylon Spector (back), CB Christian Benford (knee), S Taylor Rapp (calf)
QUESTIONABLE: LB Terrel Bernard (ankle), CB Rasul Douglas (knee), CB Taron Johnson (concussion), P Sam Martin (hamstring)
The Bills and Chiefs kick things off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park Sunday evening at 6:30 p.m.
