There has not been a ton of action across the Atlantic Basin thus far this tropical season. Yes, we had Barry a couple of weeks ago. However, Barry originated as a land-based disturbance that found just the right area of warmer-enough waters and light-enough upper level winds in the northern Gulf of Mexico to develop.
Andrea, back in May, was an extremely weak system and frankly, likely didn't actually deserve getting a name.
Tropical Depression 3 was also very weak and ill-defined as it briefly formed off the Florida east coast.
As I type, I see no real indications of any additional tropical development over the next week or so.
So why are we quiet? First of all, this is far from unheard of. Many, many tropical seasons get off to quiet starts. But what's the biggest factor this year?
When you look for lots of tropical activity, you evaluate how conditions are in what's called the 'main development region.' This is essentially the southern north Atlantic westward to the eastern Caribbean Sea. A large portion of our tropical systems originate and/or develop in this area. This year, a lot of the MDR has ocean temperatures near or a bit below average. This is not terribly favorable for development.
Also, much of the MDR continued to be covered by dry air....specifically what's called the Saharan Air Layer. With a lot of this SAL in place, this means dust and drier air, originating over the Sahara Desert, continues to take up residence over portions of the Atlantic Basin, and this hinders tropical development.
Those are the main factors thus far this season. I don't expect a lot to change through the season overall, so this will likely be a quiet-than-normal season with a lot of our development having to occur close to home as opposed to well out to sea.
